Mortality Patterns at Advanced Ages

Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov

Finding reliable data on mortality at advanced ages is always a challenge, and determining rates of mortality improvement at those ages is difficult, as well. This session outlines methodological approaches to mortality analysis after age 85 years and describes methods of mortality estimates at advanced ages. Mortality analysis is illustrated using U.S. data (Social Security Administration Death Master File) with special emphasis on data quality at advanced ages. Mortality modeling, approaches to hazard rate estimation, and analyses of late-life mortality trajectories are presented. Mortality improvement at advanced ages is also discussed.

Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., is an expert in demographic methods, biomarkers of aging and health and early-life effects on longevity and a Fellow of The Gerontological Society of America. She received her Ph.D. in anthropology and population science at the Moscow State University in Russia and her master’s degree in computer science at the University of Chicago. Her research projects were funded by international funding agencies, including the International Science Foundation, the European Union, and the National Institute on Aging (USA). She was a Co-Investigator of NIH-funded projects “Biodemography of Exceptional Longevity in the United States” and “Mortality in Central Asia.” She is an Editorial Board Member for the international journal “Demografie” and a grant reviewer for the National Institute on Aging and the Maurice Falk Institute for Economic Research in Israel. Dr. Natalia Gavrilova is currently working at the University of Chicago and the Center on Economics and Demography of Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago. She is a frequent speaker at the Society of Actuaries Living to 100 Symposia and other actuarial meetings. Read more at:
http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilova.htm

Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov is an expert in biodemographic studies of human aging, mortality and longevity and a Fellow of The Gerontological Society of America. Dr. Gavrilov has over 20 years of professional experience in this area of research and published more than 80 scientific papers on related topics in collaboration with Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova. Their book ‘The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach’ is cited as a recommended reference by Encyclopedia Britannica.

Dr. Gavrilov was a Principal Investigator of several award-winning research projects, funded by the Society of Actuaries, the National Institute on Aging, the European Union (INTAS program) and the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation (CRDF). He was a Principal Investigator of the NIA-funded research project “Biodemography of Exceptional Longevity in the United States.” He was an invited speaker at the Annual Workshops Meetings of the Chicago Actuarial Association and the Living to 100 Symposia organized by the Society of Actuaries. Dr. Gavrilov is an Editorial Board Member of the scientific peer-reviewed journals Experimental Gerontology, Gerontology, Rejuvenation Research and others. Dr. Gavrilov is currently working at the Center on Economics and Demography of Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago. Read more at: http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilov.htm

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