Risk Analysis of Building Energy Retrofits

Session Description:

The process of estimating the energy savings of a building retrofit is fraught with uncertainty. In this session, a framework and methodology for assessing the risk associated with energy efficiency retrofits is presented. First, uncertainties related to existing building and building retrofit information are quantified. These uncertainties include imperfect information about the building as well as inherently stochastic energy use drivers such as weather. The problem of weather uncertainty is compounded when one tries to assess the effects of climate change. The identified uncertainties are then propagated through energy models to develop probability distributions for energy savings from retrofits. Finally, the distributions are assessed to quantify the risk associated with an energy retrofit. The risk assessment can be used for rating energy efficiency loans and/or developing insurance products for energy efficiency retrofits

Speaker(s):

Dr. Ralph T. Muehleisen, P.E., LEED AP BD+C, Fellow ASA, Principal Building Scientist Argonne National Laboratory. Ralph is the Principal Building Scientist and Group Leader for the Building Energy Decision and Technology Research (BEDTR) Program at Argonne National Laboratory. At Argonne, Ralph leads a team of researchers investigating ways to reduce the energy use and carbon footprint of the built environment. His areas of research include stochastic building energy modeling, uncertainty in building energy analysis, and risk analysis of energy efficiency retrofits.