Mortality Patterns at Advanced Ages

Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov

This session outlines results and conclusions for a new project “Mortality of 1898-1902 Birth Cohort” sponsored by the Society of Actuaries. Project describes mortality after age 85 years by gender and geography based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File. Effects of errors in age reporting on late-life mortality are also presented. Project report is now available at  Mortality modeling, analyses of late-life mortality trajectories and historical changes of mortality at extreme ages are discussed. New follow-up study of late-life mortality recently published in peer-reviewed journal: ( will also be presented.

Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., is an expert in demographic methods, biomarkers of aging and health and early-life effects on longevity and a fellow of the Gerontological Society of America.  She received her Ph.D. in anthropology and population science at the Moscow State University in Russia and her master degree in computer science at the University of Chicago.  Her research projects were funded by international funding agencies, including the International Science Foundation, the European Union, and the National Institute on Aging (USA). Dr. Natalia Gavrilova is currently working at the University of Chicago and the NORC at the University of Chicago.  She is a frequent speaker at the Society of Actuaries Living to 100 symposia and other actuarial meetings. Read more at:

Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov is an expert in biodemographic studies of human aging, mortality and longevity and a fellow of the Gerontological Society of America.  Dr. Gavrilov has over 30 years of professional experience in this area of research and related topics in collaboration with Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova.  Their book ‘The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative approach’ is cited as a recommended reference by Encyclopedia Britannica.

Dr. Gavrilov was a Principal Investigator of several award-winning research projects, funded by the Society of Actuaries, National Institute on Aging, European Union (INTAS program) and the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation (CRDF). He was an invited speaker at the Annual meetings of the Chicago Actuarial Association and Living to 100 symposia organized by the Society of Actuaries. Dr. Gavrilov is currently working at the University of Chicago. Read more at:

Workshop Presentation

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